USA monthly crude oil production sets new record

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-China trade war, Reuters reported.

At the start of business on Monday next week, President Donald Trump will no doubt be eagerly surveying oil tanker movements from Iran and issuing stern warnings to countries not complying.

Goldman Sachs said it expects Iran's crude oil exports to fall to 1.15 million bpd by the end of the year, down from around 2.5 million bpd in mid-2018.

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While many Iranian barrels might be off the market, we're seeing an increase from other sources.

Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid Al-Falih told Russia's Tass earlier in October the kingdom's leadership is in favour of making the partnership between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russian Federation permanent.

OPEC increased output by 430,000 barrels to 33.33 million barrels a day in October, the highest since 2016, according to a Bloomberg survey of officials and analysts, and ship-tracking data. For example, should the world lose Iran's 2.7 million barrels per day, OPEC may not be able to fill the gap. Stockpiles were expected to have risen about 4.1 million barrels in the week ended October 26, an extended Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. "But rising production from Saudi Arabia and others, coupled with a global equity rout and concerns over economic outlook, is weighing on prices", Jun Inoue, a senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute Ltd., said by phone from Tokyo. Saudi Arabian government responded with an indirect threat to US Government stating that any interference from President Trump or US Government in regards to death of the journalist will result in Saudi Arabia retaliating by driving oil price higher.

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China delivered disappointing PMI data, with its manufacturing sector in October expanding at its weakest pace in over two years.

This matters for economies because when inflation rises without a corresponding increase in activity, it can push real GDP growth lower.

Strong demand from overseas paired with higher production has brought crude exports to their second-lowest deficit in the past five years. Now after this one-week spectacular increase in production, one must wonder whether the EIA is playing catch up with the last few reports that showed no increase or whether the jump in production is a sign of more production increases to come. Shell (LON:RDSB) and BP (LON:BP) also reported stronger growth in profits and performance.

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"It's a very confusing time for the oil market, which is grappling with a very fundamental question about whether we have a supply problem or not and the answer has been unclear", said Tamar Essner, director of energy and utilities at Nasdaq Corporate Solutions.

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